My take on the 2016 U.S. election

President Elect Donald J. Trump

Richard Carr and I have a post up at the Huffington Post outlining our professional analysis on the stunning outcome of the 2016 presidential election.

You can find it here.

A brief excerpt:

First off, the bonus of Florida aside, this was only possible because of the Upper Midwest. Nowhere else. This is a region that’s been hit hard by deindustrialization and the ‘trade deals’ the President Elect so often excoriates. In fact, it’s exactly the area where he said he would win the election. That doesn’t make him a great political tactician, but it does mean that he was correct about his message resonating there.

The same phenomenon has taken place in both England’s industrial north and socially conservative coastal towns in the south, where former Labour Party voters have gradually defected to UKIP since the great economic crash. From Macomb County, Michigan to Clacton, Essex the old divides of left and right have fallen by the wayside. Trump Democrats and Red UKIP are two sides of the same coin.

The fact of the matter is that the centre left has lost these voters, and without them it cannot expect to win on either side of the Atlantic. And without power it cannot achieve anything bar carping in the wilderness. End of story.